Welsh Language Promotion Strategy 2023 - 28

Introduction: Linguistic context

While drafting this Strategy, we have just obtained the initial results of the 2021 Census. The number and percentage of Carmarthenshire Welsh speakers has fallen once more.

We’ve lost 6,000 Welsh speakers, which equates to 4 percentage points. The number who consider themselves Welsh speakers now stands at 72,800 which means the county has lost its position of being the local authority with the most Welsh speakers in Wales. Gwynedd has now taken up that mantle.

Although Carmarthenshire has seen the biggest drop in percentage of Welsh speakers compared to other counties in Wales for the second Census running, the percentage drop is smaller than in the last Census. The downturn has slowed and that is encouraging, but there is no doubt that even more vigorous action is needed if we are to hold on to areas within the county where the Welsh language is the natural medium of our relationships with each other.

Initial results indicate that of the 112 small areas in Carmarthenshire, the percentage of people aged three years or over who were able to speak Welsh ranged from 62.2% (area around Brynaman) to 15.0% (area adjacent to Llanelli). At first glance, some wards have seen a slight increase in the number of Welsh speakers, and it will be interesting to analyse the causes of that growth in areas such as Gorslas.

However, it is also true to say that the greatest reduction has happened in the areas which are traditionally considered the natural home of the Welsh language, where there is a high density of Welsh speakers, in areas such as the Amman Valley.

The Welsh language is still strong in these areas, but it is losing ground quickly. Analysing the reasons behind this decline will be essential for implementing an effective Promotion Strategy for the county. Identifying the language transmission and population mobility trends, for example, will help us identify what actions would lead to change in these geographical areas.

Compared to the situation across Wales, the initial results of the Census suggest that the initial conclusions are not as relevant to Carmarthenshire. The significant reduction in the number of the youngest children able to speak Welsh, largely attributed to the COVID-19 era when play groups, childcare and schools were closed, has not happened in Carmarthenshire.

The reduction in our numbers has manifested itself in the 45+ age group and the percentage has fallen most in the age 50+ and up to the age of 80. Further analysis of population mobility will shed significant light on this change.

Planning for this Strategy was finalised before the Census results were published. And it is acceptable that the planning was based on the last Strategy report, with the statistical and qualitative detail it contains, rather than the bare Census figures.

There are limits to the usefulness of census figures, considering the effects of the census being conducted during Covid-19 lockdowns and the significant difference between the figures and other survey figures such as the Annual Population Survey. That said, due attention will be given in the second Strategy to analysing the figures when they become available in their entirety, and to plan some priorities as a result.

The Annual Population Survey Statistics, from the Office for National Statistics gives us a very different picture. As of June 2011, 82,300 (47.2%) Welsh speakers are recorded in Carmarthenshire, placing the county second to Gwynedd in terms of numbers. According to the same source, there are 94,000 Welsh speakers in Carmarthenshire in June 2021, (52.5%), which places us with the highest number of speakers in Wales. Therefore, not only do the mayor figures here significantly exceed the Census figures, but they also show a completely opposite trend to the census of growth in numbers and percentages in Carmarthenshire, as in the other counties.

The importance of data on Welsh usage for meaningful language planning is well known. It is key that we maintain communities where Welsh is the community and social norm and the number of those who can speak Welsh is only half the picture.

According to the Welsh Language Commissioner and the Welsh Government’s joint Language Use Surveys, the percentage of Welsh speakers using Welsh every day in Carmarthenshire fell from 80% to 71% between the 2004-6 Survey and the 2013-15 Survey. This was very similar to the national average and matched the percentage losses of the counties similar to us in terms of density of Welsh speakers.

Unfortunately, the 2019-20 Language Use Survey was finished early due to the pandemic. This meant that the sample was a third lower than previous surveys and it was not possible to analyse the survey results by local authority as had been done in the previous surveys.

The national results suggested however that ‘over half (56%) speak the language every day (regardless of their fluency levels) compared to 53% according to the 2013-15 Language Use Survey, and almost one in five speak the language every week (19%, exactly the same percentage as in 2013-15)’.

It therefore appears that Welsh is being maintained fairly successfully as a community and social language at this time. Obviously, having meaningful and comparative data on language use would be very useful to measure the future impact of a Promotion Strategy like this.

At the beginning of the first Promotion Strategy, an effort was made to find more local data on attitudes and awareness of the Welsh language. A questionnaire was administered mainly through the Mentrau, which gave us some useful information.

The report stated that 97% of respondents saw bilingualism as advantageous and that ‘work opportunities’ were most prominent in people’s minds when thinking about those benefits. We found that only half of respondents understood that pupils receiving English medium education in the county were unlikely to be bilingual before leaving school.

It was also possible to establish that respondents’ awareness of the organisations promoting Welsh in the county was relatively high (between 67 and 82 %). Despite the usefulness of this survey, the sample was too small to be representative and it had to be recognised also that the respondents came from the usual audiences of the Mentrau, rather than providing us with information about the residents of the county more widely.

Although it was planned to re-run the survey at the end of the strategy period, it was decided, that there was insufficient resource available to administer it, and while it would have been useful to understand whether our campaign to raise awareness of Welsh language education had had an impact, there was not the necessary infrastructure in place at county level to find meaningful and representative data.

There remains, therefore, a gap in empirical evidence that would ascertain the impact of the campaigns and interventions of the Strategy.